462

Active Cases

2454

Total Cases

0

Daily New Cases

30 Apr 2020

Last Community Patient Reported

1980

Recovered Cases

11

Fatal Cases

37

Observation Cases

120,730

PCR Tests Performed

2112

+/-14 Confidence Variance
Predicted Final Spread

17/25

Districts Affected

14%

Growth Rate

81%

Recovery Rate

0.4%

Fatality Rate

COVID19 Spread End Projection in Sri Lanka - Daily Update.

COVID19 Spread Projection in Sri Lanka.

Calculated on: 07th July 2020, 11:50 PM

Date Predicted Peak Day Predicted Final Cases in SL Predicted Spread End Day Confidence Variance (+/-)
01 Jun 30 Apr 1763 18 Sep 4
02 Jun 01 May 1831 16 Sep 4
03 Jun 02 May 1837 10 Sep 6
04 Jun 07 May 1940 28 Sep 17
05 Jun 04 May 1847 31 Aug 11
06 Jun 04 May 1863 02 Sep 10
07 Jun 04 May 1909 02 Sep 12
08 Jun 07 May 1942 14 Sep 12
09 Jun 05 May 1963 15 Sep 9
10 Jun 05 May 1965 12 Sep 8
11 Jun 07 May 2023 14 Sep 5
12 Jun 06 May 2015 26 Sep 1
13 Jun 06 May 1994 02 Sep 7
14 Jun 07 May 1995 26 Aug 12
15 Jun 06 May 2036 02 Sep 12
16 Jun 08 May 2017 02 Sep 10
17 Jun 05 May 2055 26 Aug 13
18 Jun 08 May 2021 28 Aug 11
19 Jun 05 May 2022 22 Aug 13
20 Jun 06 May 2014 21 Aug 13
22 Jun 02 May 1976 14 Aug 13
23 Jun 03 May 2016 03 Aug 13
24 Jun 04 May 2032 11 Aug 13
25 Jun 05 May 2067 09 Aug 12
26 Jun 04 May 2040 13 Aug 12
27 Jun 05 May 2071 07 Aug 12
28 Jun 04 May 2069 09 Aug 12
29 Jun 03 May 2062 07 Aug 14
30 Jun 04 May 2055 10 Aug 10
01 Jul 04 May 2088 12 Aug 11
02 Jul 04 May 2097 16 Aug 16
03 Jul 04 May 2104 17 Aug 17
04 Jul 04 May 2099 08 Aug 14
05 Jul 04 May 2099 08 Aug 15
06 Jul 02 May 2105 07 Aug 17
07 Jul 04 May 2089 09 Aug 13
08 Jul 04 May 2112 08 Aug 14

Analysis for Sri Lanka:

  • The maximum amount of cases should be around 2112 cases (+/-14).
  • We expect the spreading will continue till 08th August 2020.

A new method has been applied to further adjust the prediction accuracy. For this calculation, a hybrid model is used - Regression model, a Multilayer perceptron model and Logistics model.

Disclaimer: The models and predictions are based on currently available data and calculated when sufficient validated observations have been reported. Sudden community spreads or new exposure evidence (i.e. Akurana, Bandaragama Incident, Religious mass in Jaffna) can affect new projections. When such incidences are reported, the model will be re-calibrated.

The authors and the developers of this website are not liable for any outcomes following the use of the data and prediction from this website.

Outbreak Spread Trend.

COVID-19 Sri Lanka - Case Source Distribution.

COVID-19 Sri Lanka 0-2010 Cases Duration.

COVID-19 Sri Lanka Total Number of PCR Tests Performed.

PCR Tests Performed

Sri Lanka COVID-19 Recovery Rate vs Fatality Rate.

Total Cases in Sri Lanka vs Daily Growth Rate in Sri Lanka.

Spread Probability (R0) in Sri Lanka Before vs After Lockdown.

Global Infection Trajectory: See Which Countries are Flattening Their COVID-19 Curve.

Daily New Cases in Sri Lanka

Case Growth Rate (%)

High-risk medical conditions of Covid-19 (Study - China)

Multiple conditions increase the risk factors. (Study - Italy)

WHO has explained four stages of COVID-19

COVID-19 Transmission vs Social Distancing

Top 5 District Distribution of Cases in Sri Lanka

COVID-19 confirmed in Sri Lanka - Nationality

COVID-19 Age Distribution

COVID-19 Gender Distribution

Transmission Sources

Total Negative vs Positive COVID-19 tests confirmed in Sri Lanka

District Data Map

District Data Map Here...

District Data

District Cases
Colombo 150
Puttalam 35
Kalutara 34
Gampaha 36
Jaffna 7
Kandy 13
Ratnapura 5
Kurunegala 11
Matara 2
Galle 1
Kegalle 4
Batticoloa 1
Badulla 1
Matara 1
Ampara 2
Anuradhapura 2
Monaragala 4
Mathale 2
Polonnaruwa 1
Vavuniya 0
Hambanthota 0
Quarantine Centres 77
Arrivals from Other Countries 774
Naval and Other Forces 919

Exposure History of Covid-19 Diagnosed cases of Sri Lanka as on 27 Mar 2020.