Local Case Count
Imported Case Count
Most Cases Source
Daily New Cases
30, Oct 2020
Last Community Patient Reported
PCR Tests Performed
14304+/- 121 Confidence Variance
Predicted Final Spread
COVID19 Spread End Projection in Sri Lanka - Daily Update.
|Date||Predicted Peak Day||Predicted Final Cases in SL||Predicted Spread End Day||Confidence Variance (+/-)|
|19 Oct||12 Oct||6204||09 Dec 2020||22|
|20 Oct||13 Oct||6275||11 Dec 2020||23|
|21 Oct||13 Oct||6300||13 Dec 2020||24|
|22 Oct||20 Oct||7521||08 Feb 2021||78|
|23 Oct||04 Nov||9369||24 Apr 2021||143|
|24 Oct||06 Nov||9438||29 Apr 2021||144|
|25 Oct||05 Nov||9790||04 May 2021||144|
|26 Oct||05 Nov||10182||17 May 2021||123|
|27 Oct||31 Oct||11340||09 May 2021||122|
|28 Oct||31 Oct||12484||14 May 2021||122|
|29 Oct||31 Oct||14304||25 May 2021||121|
Analysis for Sri Lanka:
- The maximum amount of cases should be around 14304 cases (+/-121).
- We expect the spreading will continue till 25 May 2021.
A new method has been applied to further adjust the prediction accuracy. For this calculation, a hybrid model is used - Regression model, a Multilayer perceptron model and Logistics model.
Disclaimer: The models and predictions are based on currently available data and calculated when sufficient validated observations have been reported. Sudden community spreads or new exposure evidence (i.e. Akurana, Bandaragama Incident, Religious mass in Jaffna) can affect new projections. When such incidences are reported, the model will be re-calibrated.
The authors and the developers of this website are not liable for any outcomes following the use of the data and prediction from this website.
Outbreak Spread Trend.
COVID-19 Sri Lanka - Case Source Distribution.
COVID-19 Sri Lanka 0-10000 Cases Duration.
COVID-19 Sri Lanka Total Number of PCR Tests Performed.
Sri Lanka COVID-19 Recovery Rate vs Fatality Rate.
Total Cases in Sri Lanka vs Daily Growth Rate in Sri Lanka.
Spread Probability (R0) in Sri Lanka Before vs After Lockdown.
Global Infection Trajectory: See Which Countries are Flattening Their COVID-19 Curve.
Daily New Cases in Sri Lanka
Case Growth Rate (%)
High-risk medical conditions of Covid-19 (Study - China)
Multiple conditions increase the risk factors. (Study - Italy)
WHO has explained four stages of COVID-19
COVID-19 Transmission vs Social Distancing
Top 5 District Distribution of Cases in Sri Lanka
COVID-19 confirmed in Sri Lanka - Nationality
COVID-19 Age Distribution
COVID-19 Gender Distribution
Total Negative vs Positive COVID-19 tests confirmed in Sri Lanka
District Data Map
|Total Community Cases||894|
|Naval and Other Forces||922|
|Arrivals from Other Countries||816|
|Kandakadu Rehab. Center||473|