1649

Total Cases

6

Daily New Cases

815

0 in ICU
Active Cases

823

Recovered Cases

11

Fatal Cases

65

Observation Cases

66421

PCR Tests Performed

1763

+/-4 Confidence Variance
Predicted Final Spread

17/25

Districts Affected

0.4%

Growth Rate

50%

Recovery Rate

1%

Fatality Rate

COVID19 Spread End Projection in Sri Lanka - Daily Update.

COVID19 Spread Projection in Sri Lanka - Weekly Update.

COVID19 Spread Projection in Sri Lanka.

Calculated on: 31 May 2020, 11:50 PM

Date Predicted Peak Day Predicted Final Cases in SL Predicted Spread End Day Confidence Variance (+/-)
17 May 26 Apr 1108 04 Aug 4
18 May 26 Apr 1117 04 Aug 3
19 May 28 Apr 1148 09 Aug 2
20 May 27 Apr 1138 05 Aug 2
21 May 29 Apr 1177 10 Aug 1
22 May 29 Apr 1184 18 Aug 2
23 May 29 Apr 1198 18 Aug 1
24 May 29 Apr 1310 18 Aug 1
25 May 29 Apr 1329 18 Aug 1
26 May 29 Apr 1475 25 Aug 1
27 May 04 May 1603 07 Sep 1
28 May 04 May 1686 15 Sep 1
29 May 03 May 1697 15 Sep 1
30 May 03 May 1802 28 Sep 1
31 May 05 May 1826 29 Sep 2
01 Jun 30 Apr 1763 18 Sep 4

Analysis for Sri Lanka:

  • The maximum amount of cases should be around 1763 cases (+/-4).
  • We expect the spreading will continue till 18 September 2020.

A new method has been applied to further adjust the prediction accuracy. For this calculation, a hybrid model is used - Regression model, a Multilayer perceptron model and Logistics model.

Disclaimer: The models and predictions are based on currently available data and calculated when sufficient validated observations have been reported. Sudden community spreads or new exposure evidence (i.e. Akurana, Bandaragama Incident, Religious mass in Jaffna) can affect new projections. When such incidences are reported, the model will be re-calibrated.

The authors and the developers of this website are not liable for any outcomes following the use of the data and prediction from this website.

Outbreak Spread Trend.

COVID-19 Sri Lanka - Case Source Distribution.

COVID-19 Sri Lanka 0-1600 Cases Duration.

COVID-19 Sri Lanka Total Number of PCR Tests Performed.

PCR Tests Performed

Sri Lanka COVID-19 Recovery Rate vs Fatality Rate.

Total Cases in Sri Lanka vs Daily Growth Rate in Sri Lanka.

Spread Probability (R0) in Sri Lanka Before vs After Lockdown.

Global Infection Trajectory: See Which Countries are Flattening Their COVID-19 Curve.

Daily New Cases in Sri Lanka

Case Growth Rate (%)

High-risk medical conditions of Covid-19 (Study - China)

Multiple conditions increase the risk factors. (Study - Italy)

WHO has explained four stages of COVID-19

COVID-19 Transmission vs Social Distancing

Top 5 District Distribution of Cases in Sri Lanka

COVID-19 confirmed in Sri Lanka - Nationality

COVID-19 Age Distribution

COVID-19 Gender Distribution

Transmission Sources

Total Negative vs Positive COVID-19 tests confirmed in Sri Lanka

District Data Map

District Data

District Cases
Colombo 150
Gampaha 35
Puttalam 35
Kalutara 34
Kandy 13
Kurunegala 11
Jaffna 7
Ratnapura 5
Kegalle 4
Monaragala 4
Anuradhapura 2
Ampara 2
Mathale 2
Matara 1
Galle 1
Badulla 1
Batticoloa 1
Polonnaruwa 1
Quarantine Centres 68
Naval and Other Forces 775
Arrivals from Other Countries 480
Community Cases 310

Exposure History of Covid-19 Diagnosed cases of Sri Lanka as on 22 Mar 2020.