7311
Active Cases
52313
Total Cases
44746
Recovered Cases
0
Daily New Cases
256
Fatal Cases
1474909
PCR Tests Performed
Colombo
Most Affected District
55363
+/- 292 Confidence VariancePredicted Final Spread
25/25
Districts Affected
COVID19 Spread End Projection in Sri Lanka - Daily Update.
| Date | Predicted Peak Day | Predicted Final Cases in SL | Predicted Spread End Day | Confidence Variance (+/-) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Oct | 12 Oct | 6204 | 09 Dec 2020 | 22 |
| 20 Oct | 13 Oct | 6275 | 11 Dec 2020 | 23 |
| 21 Oct | 13 Oct | 6300 | 13 Dec 2020 | 24 |
| 22 Oct | 20 Oct | 7521 | 08 Feb 2021 | 78 |
| 23 Oct | 04 Nov | 9369 | 24 Apr 2021 | 143 |
| 24 Oct | 06 Nov | 9438 | 29 Apr 2021 | 144 |
| 25 Oct | 05 Nov | 9790 | 04 May 2021 | 144 |
| 26 Oct | 05 Nov | 10182 | 17 May 2021 | 123 |
| 27 Oct | 31 Oct | 11340 | 09 May 2021 | 122 |
| 28 Oct | 31 Oct | 12484 | 14 May 2021 | 122 |
| 29 Oct | 31 Oct | 14304 | 25 May 2021 | 121 |
| 30 Oct | 01 Nov | 12698 | 04 June 2021 | 121 |
| 31 Oct | 31 Oct | 12613 | 01 June 2021 | 121 |
| 01 Nov | 23 Oct | 14844 | 20 June 2021 | 122 |
| 02 Nov | 01 Nov | 15944 | 27 June 2021 | 123 |
| 03 Nov | 31 Oct | 15711 | 10 March 2021 | 146 |
| 04 Nov | 03 Nov | 17664 | 21 March 2021 | 156 |
| 05 Nov | 02 Nov | 17885 | 20 March 2021 | 156 |
| 06 Nov | 04 Nov | 18865 | 21 March 2021 | 165 |
| 08 Nov | 03 Nov | 18425 | 13 March 2021 | 155 |
| 09 Nov | 05 Nov | 19749 | 01 March 2021 | 156 |
| 10 Nov | 04 Nov | 19931 | 10 March 2021 | 186 |
| 11 Nov | 04 Nov | 20886 | 13 March 2021 | 140 |
| 12 Nov | 04 Nov | 21818 | 14 March 2021 | 216 |
| 13 Nov | 06 Nov | 22694 | 20 March 2021 | 196 |
| 14 Nov | 06 Nov | 23134 | 11 March 2021 | 220 |
| 15 Nov | 09 Nov | 24673 | 18 March 2021 | 267 |
| 16 Nov | 10 Nov | 25924 | 23 March 2021 | 178 |
| 17 Nov | 11 Nov | 26997 | 30 March 2021 | 421 |
| 18 Nov | 13 Nov | 27528 | 07 April 2021 | 504 |
| 19 Nov | 15 Nov | 29012 | 17 April 2021 | 644 |
| 20 Nov | 14 Nov | 28867 | 22 April 2021 | 667 |
| 21 Nov | 17 Nov | 31206 | 15 April 2021 | 729 |
| 22 Nov | 14 Nov | 29072 | 26 March 2021 | 539 |
| 23 Nov | 13 Nov | 29499 | 26 March 2021 | 197 |
| 24 Nov | 13 Nov | 29709 | 23 March 2021 | 176 |
| 25 Nov | 14 Nov | 30280 | 24 March 2021 | 200 |
| 26 Nov | 15 Nov | 30754 | 24 March 2021 | 138 |
| 27 Nov | 17 Nov | 31286 | 27 March 2021 | 162 |
| 28 Nov | 16 Nov | 31706 | 26 March 2021 | 202 |
| 29 Nov | 17 Nov | 32295 | 28 March 2021 | 234 |
| 30 Nov | 18 Nov | 32986 | 29 March 2021 | 175 |
| 01 Dec | 17 Nov | 32953 | 30 March 2021 | 270 |
| 02 Dec | 18 Nov | 32666 | 21 March 2021 | 329 |
| 03 Dec | 19 Nov | 33574 | 22 March 2021 | 327 |
| 04 Dec | 22 Nov | 37098 | 28 March 2021 | 284 |
| 05 Dec | 21 Nov | 38033 | 10 April 2021 | 281 |
| 06 Dec | 21 Nov | 37014 | 01 April 2021 | 358 |
| 07 Dec | 15 Nov | 39516 | 11 April 2021 | 280 |
| 08 Dec | 15 Nov | 39529 | 11 April 2021 | 280 |
| 09 Dec | 17 Nov | 43065 | 22 April 2021 | 281 |
| 10 Dec | 18 Nov | 43258 | 23 April 2021 | 278 |
| 11 Dec | 20 Nov | 45764 | 29 April 2021 | 278 |
| 12 Dec | - | - | - | - |
| 13 Dec | 21 Nov | 48190 | 04 May 2021 | 279 |
| 14 Dec | 21 Nov | 48195 | 04 May 2021 | 279 |
| 15 Dec | 26 Nov | 54140 | 28 April 2021 | 311 |
| 16 Dec | 27 Nov | 55363 | 04 May 2021 | 292 |
Analysis for Sri Lanka:
- The maximum amount of cases should be around 55363 cases (+/-292).
- We expect the spreading will continue till 04 May 2021.
A new method has been applied to further adjust the prediction accuracy. For this calculation, a hybrid model is used - Regression model, a Multilayer perceptron model and Logistics model.
Disclaimer: The models and predictions are based on currently available data and calculated when sufficient validated observations have been reported. Sudden community spreads or new exposure evidence (i.e. Akurana, Bandaragama Incident, Religious mass in Jaffna) can affect new projections. When such incidences are reported, the model will be re-calibrated.
The authors and the developers of this website are not liable for any outcomes following the use of the data and prediction from this website.
Sri Lanka Covid-19 Case Development.
Outbreak Spread Trend.
COVID-19 Sri Lanka - Case Source Distribution.
COVID-19 Sri Lanka 0-27000 Cases Duration.
COVID-19 Sri Lanka Total Number of PCR Tests Performed.
Sri Lanka COVID-19 Recovery Rate vs Fatality Rate.
Total Cases in Sri Lanka vs Daily Growth Rate in Sri Lanka.
Spread Probability (R0) in Sri Lanka Before vs After Lockdown.
Global Infection Trajectory: See Which Countries are Flattening Their COVID-19 Curve.
Daily New Cases in Sri Lanka
Case Growth Rate (%)
High-risk medical conditions of Covid-19 (Study - China)
Multiple conditions increase the risk factors. (Study - Italy)
WHO has explained four stages of COVID-19
COVID-19 Transmission vs Social Distancing
Top 5 District Distribution of Cases in Sri Lanka
COVID-19 confirmed in Sri Lanka - Nationality
COVID-19 Age Distribution
COVID-19 Gender Distribution
Transmission Sources
Total Negative vs Positive COVID-19 tests confirmed in Sri Lanka
District Data Map
District Data
| District | Cases |
|---|---|
| Colombo | 14138 |
| Gampaha | 7540 |
| Puttalam | 371 |
| Kalutara | 1976 |
| Anuradhapura | 107 |
| Kandy | 945 |
| Kurunegala | 476 |
| Polonnaruwa | 31 |
| Jaffna | 70 |
| Ratnapura | 383 |
| Kegalle | 249 |
| Monaragala | 52 |
| Kalmunai | 422 |
| Matale | 72 |
| Galle | 380 |
| Ampara | 36 |
| Badulla | 148 |
| Matara | 126 |
| Batticoloa | 99 |
| Hambanthota | 79 |
| Vavunia | 23 |
| Trincomalee | 28 |
| Nuwaraeliya | 296 |
| Kilinochchi | 14 |
| Mannar | 14 |
| Mullathivu | 1 |
Exposure History of Covid-19 Diagnosed cases of Sri Lanka as on 27 Mar 2020.
