264
Active Cases
2839
Total Cases
0
Daily New Cases
03, August 2020
Last Community Patient Reported
2564
Recovered Cases
11
Fatal Cases
68
Hospitalized
167,672
PCR Tests Performed
2924
+/-30 Confidence VariancePredicted Final Spread
17/25
Districts Affected
0.1%
Growth Rate
90%
Recovery Rate
0.4%
Fatality Rate
COVID19 Spread End Projection in Sri Lanka - Daily Update.
COVID19 Spread Projection in Sri Lanka.
Calculated on: 6th August 2020, 11:50 PM
| Date | Predicted Peak Day | Predicted Final Cases in SL | Predicted Spread End Day | Confidence Variance (+/-) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Jun | 30 Apr | 1763 | 18 Sep | 4 |
| 02 Jun | 01 May | 1831 | 16 Sep | 4 |
| 03 Jun | 02 May | 1837 | 10 Sep | 6 |
| 04 Jun | 07 May | 1940 | 28 Sep | 17 |
| 05 Jun | 04 May | 1847 | 31 Aug | 11 |
| 06 Jun | 04 May | 1863 | 02 Sep | 10 |
| 07 Jun | 04 May | 1909 | 02 Sep | 12 |
| 08 Jun | 07 May | 1942 | 14 Sep | 12 |
| 09 Jun | 05 May | 1963 | 15 Sep | 9 |
| 10 Jun | 05 May | 1965 | 12 Sep | 8 |
| 11 Jun | 07 May | 2023 | 14 Sep | 5 |
| 12 Jun | 06 May | 2015 | 26 Sep | 1 |
| 13 Jun | 06 May | 1994 | 02 Sep | 7 |
| 14 Jun | 07 May | 1995 | 26 Aug | 12 |
| 15 Jun | 06 May | 2036 | 02 Sep | 12 |
| 16 Jun | 08 May | 2017 | 02 Sep | 10 |
| 17 Jun | 05 May | 2055 | 26 Aug | 13 |
| 18 Jun | 08 May | 2021 | 28 Aug | 11 |
| 19 Jun | 05 May | 2022 | 22 Aug | 13 |
| 20 Jun | 06 May | 2014 | 21 Aug | 13 |
| 22 Jun | 02 May | 1976 | 14 Aug | 13 |
| 23 Jun | 03 May | 2016 | 03 Aug | 13 |
| 24 Jun | 04 May | 2032 | 11 Aug | 13 |
| 25 Jun | 05 May | 2067 | 09 Aug | 12 |
| 26 Jun | 04 May | 2040 | 13 Aug | 12 |
| 27 Jun | 05 May | 2071 | 07 Aug | 12 |
| 28 Jun | 04 May | 2069 | 09 Aug | 12 |
| 29 Jun | 03 May | 2062 | 07 Aug | 14 |
| 30 Jun | 04 May | 2055 | 10 Aug | 10 |
| 01 Jul | 04 May | 2088 | 12 Aug | 11 |
| 02 Jul | 04 May | 2097 | 16 Aug | 16 |
| 03 Jul | 04 May | 2104 | 17 Aug | 17 |
| 04 Jul | 04 May | 2099 | 08 Aug | 14 |
| 05 Jul | 04 May | 2099 | 08 Aug | 15 |
| 06 Jul | 02 May | 2105 | 07 Aug | 17 |
| 07 Jul | 04 May | 2089 | 09 Aug | 13 |
| 08 Jul | 04 May | 2112 | 08 Aug | 14 |
| 09 Jul | 2992 | 17 | ||
| 10 Jul | 08 May | 2992 | 21 Aug | 28 |
| 11 Jul | 07 May | 3075 | 25 Aug | 28 |
| 12 Jul | 08 May | 3092 | 25 Aug | 34 |
| 14 Jul | 09 May | 2737 | 11 Sep | 30 |
| 15 Jul | 08 May | 2718 | 17 Sep | 27 |
| 16 Jul | 10 May | 2714 | 27 Sep | 26 |
| 17 Jul | 11 May | 2724 | 21 Sep | 33 |
| 18 Jul | 10 May | 2743 | 27 Sep | 27 |
| 19 Jul | 15 May | 2792 | 22 Sep | 35 |
| 20 Jul | 12 May | 2799 | 21 Sep | 27 |
| 21 Jul | 12 May | 2806 | 18 Sep | 18 |
| 22 Jul | 14 May | 2824 | 11 Sep | 25 |
| 23 Jul | 15 May | 2825 | 15 Sep | 21 |
| 24 Jul | 15 May | 2842 | 16 Sep | 23 |
| 25 Jul | 15 May | 2863 | 09 Sep | 24 |
| 26 Jul | 21 May | 2891 | 09 Sep | 33 |
| 27 Jul | 19 May | 2902 | 13 Sep | 26 |
| 28 Jul | 24 May | 2910 | 06 Sep | 31 |
| 29 Jul | 16 May | 2905 | 31 Aug | 25 |
| 30 Jul | 19 May | 2911 | 08 Sep | 17 |
| 31 Jul | 20 May | 2914 | 08 Sep | 27 |
| 01 Aug | 17 May | 2917 | 01 Sep | 28 |
| 02 Aug | 18 May | 2908 | 08 Sep | 21 |
| 03 Aug | 18 May | 2909 | 05 Sep | 23 |
| 04 Aug | 25 May | 2927 | 06 Sep | 33 |
| 05 Aug | 21 May | 2915 | 06 Sep | 22 |
| 06 Aug | 19 May | 2924 | 01 Sep | 30 |
Analysis for Sri Lanka:
- The maximum amount of cases should be around 2924 cases (+/-30).
- We expect the spreading will continue till 01st September 2020.
A new method has been applied to further adjust the prediction accuracy. For this calculation, a hybrid model is used - Regression model, a Multilayer perceptron model and Logistics model.
Disclaimer: The models and predictions are based on currently available data and calculated when sufficient validated observations have been reported. Sudden community spreads or new exposure evidence (i.e. Akurana, Bandaragama Incident, Religious mass in Jaffna) can affect new projections. When such incidences are reported, the model will be re-calibrated.
The authors and the developers of this website are not liable for any outcomes following the use of the data and prediction from this website.
Outbreak Spread Trend.
COVID-19 Sri Lanka - Case Source Distribution.
COVID-19 Sri Lanka 0-2010 Cases Duration.
COVID-19 Sri Lanka Total Number of PCR Tests Performed.
Sri Lanka COVID-19 Recovery Rate vs Fatality Rate.
Total Cases in Sri Lanka vs Daily Growth Rate in Sri Lanka.
Spread Probability (R0) in Sri Lanka Before vs After Lockdown.
Global Infection Trajectory: See Which Countries are Flattening Their COVID-19 Curve.
Daily New Cases in Sri Lanka
Case Growth Rate (%)
High-risk medical conditions of Covid-19 (Study - China)
Multiple conditions increase the risk factors. (Study - Italy)
WHO has explained four stages of COVID-19
COVID-19 Transmission vs Social Distancing
Top 5 District Distribution of Cases in Sri Lanka
COVID-19 confirmed in Sri Lanka - Nationality
COVID-19 Age Distribution
COVID-19 Gender Distribution
Transmission Sources
Total Negative vs Positive COVID-19 tests confirmed in Sri Lanka
District Data Map
District Data
| District | Cases |
|---|---|
| Colombo | 160 |
| Gampaha | 38 |
| Puttalam | 35 |
| Kalutara | 34 |
| Anuradhapura | 20 |
| Kandy | 16 |
| Polonnaruwa | 13 |
| Kurunegala | 11 |
| Jaffna | 7 |
| Ratnapura | 6 |
| Kegalle | 4 |
| Monaragala | 4 |
| Ampara | 4 |
| Kalmunai | 2 |
| Matale | 2 |
| Galle | 2 |
| Badulla | 1 |
| Matara | 1 |
| Batticoloa | 1 |
| Hambanthota | 1 |
| Total Community Cases | 327 |
| Naval and Other Forces | 922 |
| Quarantine Centres | 78 |
| Arrivals from Other Countries | 816 |
| Kandakadu Rehab. Center | 473 |
| Welikada Prison | 1 |
| Foreigners | 30 |
Exposure History of Covid-19 Diagnosed cases of Sri Lanka as on 27 Mar 2020.
