264

Active Cases

2839

Total Cases

0

Daily New Cases

03, August 2020

Last Community Patient Reported

2564

Recovered Cases

11

Fatal Cases

68

Hospitalized

167,672

PCR Tests Performed

2924

+/-30 Confidence Variance
Predicted Final Spread

17/25

Districts Affected

0.1%

Growth Rate

90%

Recovery Rate

0.4%

Fatality Rate

COVID19 Spread End Projection in Sri Lanka - Daily Update.

COVID19 Spread Projection in Sri Lanka.

Calculated on: 6th August 2020, 11:50 PM

Date Predicted Peak Day Predicted Final Cases in SL Predicted Spread End Day Confidence Variance (+/-)
01 Jun 30 Apr 1763 18 Sep 4
02 Jun 01 May 1831 16 Sep 4
03 Jun 02 May 1837 10 Sep 6
04 Jun 07 May 1940 28 Sep 17
05 Jun 04 May 1847 31 Aug 11
06 Jun 04 May 1863 02 Sep 10
07 Jun 04 May 1909 02 Sep 12
08 Jun 07 May 1942 14 Sep 12
09 Jun 05 May 1963 15 Sep 9
10 Jun 05 May 1965 12 Sep 8
11 Jun 07 May 2023 14 Sep 5
12 Jun 06 May 2015 26 Sep 1
13 Jun 06 May 1994 02 Sep 7
14 Jun 07 May 1995 26 Aug 12
15 Jun 06 May 2036 02 Sep 12
16 Jun 08 May 2017 02 Sep 10
17 Jun 05 May 2055 26 Aug 13
18 Jun 08 May 2021 28 Aug 11
19 Jun 05 May 2022 22 Aug 13
20 Jun 06 May 2014 21 Aug 13
22 Jun 02 May 1976 14 Aug 13
23 Jun 03 May 2016 03 Aug 13
24 Jun 04 May 2032 11 Aug 13
25 Jun 05 May 2067 09 Aug 12
26 Jun 04 May 2040 13 Aug 12
27 Jun 05 May 2071 07 Aug 12
28 Jun 04 May 2069 09 Aug 12
29 Jun 03 May 2062 07 Aug 14
30 Jun 04 May 2055 10 Aug 10
01 Jul 04 May 2088 12 Aug 11
02 Jul 04 May 2097 16 Aug 16
03 Jul 04 May 2104 17 Aug 17
04 Jul 04 May 2099 08 Aug 14
05 Jul 04 May 2099 08 Aug 15
06 Jul 02 May 2105 07 Aug 17
07 Jul 04 May 2089 09 Aug 13
08 Jul 04 May 2112 08 Aug 14
09 Jul 2992 17
10 Jul 08 May 2992 21 Aug 28
11 Jul 07 May 3075 25 Aug 28
12 Jul 08 May 3092 25 Aug 34
14 Jul 09 May 2737 11 Sep 30
15 Jul 08 May 2718 17 Sep 27
16 Jul 10 May 2714 27 Sep 26
17 Jul 11 May 2724 21 Sep 33
18 Jul 10 May 2743 27 Sep 27
19 Jul 15 May 2792 22 Sep 35
20 Jul 12 May 2799 21 Sep 27
21 Jul 12 May 2806 18 Sep 18
22 Jul 14 May 2824 11 Sep 25
23 Jul 15 May 2825 15 Sep 21
24 Jul 15 May 2842 16 Sep 23
25 Jul 15 May 2863 09 Sep 24
26 Jul 21 May 2891 09 Sep 33
27 Jul 19 May 2902 13 Sep 26
28 Jul 24 May 2910 06 Sep 31
29 Jul 16 May 2905 31 Aug 25
30 Jul 19 May 2911 08 Sep 17
31 Jul 20 May 2914 08 Sep 27
01 Aug 17 May 2917 01 Sep 28
02 Aug 18 May 2908 08 Sep 21
03 Aug 18 May 2909 05 Sep 23
04 Aug 25 May 2927 06 Sep 33
05 Aug 21 May 2915 06 Sep 22
06 Aug 19 May 2924 01 Sep 30

Analysis for Sri Lanka:

  • The maximum amount of cases should be around 2924 cases (+/-30).
  • We expect the spreading will continue till 01st September 2020.

A new method has been applied to further adjust the prediction accuracy. For this calculation, a hybrid model is used - Regression model, a Multilayer perceptron model and Logistics model.

Disclaimer: The models and predictions are based on currently available data and calculated when sufficient validated observations have been reported. Sudden community spreads or new exposure evidence (i.e. Akurana, Bandaragama Incident, Religious mass in Jaffna) can affect new projections. When such incidences are reported, the model will be re-calibrated.

The authors and the developers of this website are not liable for any outcomes following the use of the data and prediction from this website.

Outbreak Spread Trend.

COVID-19 Sri Lanka - Case Source Distribution.

COVID-19 Sri Lanka 0-2010 Cases Duration.

COVID-19 Sri Lanka Total Number of PCR Tests Performed.

PCR Tests Performed

Sri Lanka COVID-19 Recovery Rate vs Fatality Rate.

Total Cases in Sri Lanka vs Daily Growth Rate in Sri Lanka.

Spread Probability (R0) in Sri Lanka Before vs After Lockdown.

Global Infection Trajectory: See Which Countries are Flattening Their COVID-19 Curve.

Daily New Cases in Sri Lanka

Case Growth Rate (%)

High-risk medical conditions of Covid-19 (Study - China)

Multiple conditions increase the risk factors. (Study - Italy)

WHO has explained four stages of COVID-19

COVID-19 Transmission vs Social Distancing

Top 5 District Distribution of Cases in Sri Lanka

COVID-19 confirmed in Sri Lanka - Nationality

COVID-19 Age Distribution

COVID-19 Gender Distribution

Transmission Sources

Total Negative vs Positive COVID-19 tests confirmed in Sri Lanka

District Data Map

District Data Map Here...

District Data

District Cases
Colombo 160
Gampaha 38
Puttalam 35
Kalutara 34
Anuradhapura 20
Kandy 16
Polonnaruwa 13
Kurunegala 11
Jaffna 7
Ratnapura 6
Kegalle 4
Monaragala 4
Ampara 4
Kalmunai 2
Matale 2
Galle 2
Badulla 1
Matara 1
Batticoloa 1
Hambanthota 1
Total Community Cases 327
Naval and Other Forces 922
Quarantine Centres 78
Arrivals from Other Countries 816
Kandakadu Rehab. Center 473
Welikada Prison 1
Foreigners 30

Exposure History of Covid-19 Diagnosed cases of Sri Lanka as on 27 Mar 2020.