Daily New Cases
8150 in ICU
PCR Tests Performed
1763+/-4 Confidence Variance
Predicted Final Spread
COVID19 Spread End Projection in Sri Lanka - Daily Update.
COVID19 Spread Projection in Sri Lanka - Weekly Update.
COVID19 Spread Projection in Sri Lanka.
Calculated on: 31 May 2020, 11:50 PM
|Date||Predicted Peak Day||Predicted Final Cases in SL||Predicted Spread End Day||Confidence Variance (+/-)|
|17 May||26 Apr||1108||04 Aug||4|
|18 May||26 Apr||1117||04 Aug||3|
|19 May||28 Apr||1148||09 Aug||2|
|20 May||27 Apr||1138||05 Aug||2|
|21 May||29 Apr||1177||10 Aug||1|
|22 May||29 Apr||1184||18 Aug||2|
|23 May||29 Apr||1198||18 Aug||1|
|24 May||29 Apr||1310||18 Aug||1|
|25 May||29 Apr||1329||18 Aug||1|
|26 May||29 Apr||1475||25 Aug||1|
|27 May||04 May||1603||07 Sep||1|
|28 May||04 May||1686||15 Sep||1|
|29 May||03 May||1697||15 Sep||1|
|30 May||03 May||1802||28 Sep||1|
|31 May||05 May||1826||29 Sep||2|
|01 Jun||30 Apr||1763||18 Sep||4|
Analysis for Sri Lanka:
- The maximum amount of cases should be around 1763 cases (+/-4).
- We expect the spreading will continue till 18 September 2020.
A new method has been applied to further adjust the prediction accuracy. For this calculation, a hybrid model is used - Regression model, a Multilayer perceptron model and Logistics model.
Disclaimer: The models and predictions are based on currently available data and calculated when sufficient validated observations have been reported. Sudden community spreads or new exposure evidence (i.e. Akurana, Bandaragama Incident, Religious mass in Jaffna) can affect new projections. When such incidences are reported, the model will be re-calibrated.
The authors and the developers of this website are not liable for any outcomes following the use of the data and prediction from this website.
Outbreak Spread Trend.
COVID-19 Sri Lanka - Case Source Distribution.
COVID-19 Sri Lanka 0-1600 Cases Duration.
COVID-19 Sri Lanka Total Number of PCR Tests Performed.
Sri Lanka COVID-19 Recovery Rate vs Fatality Rate.
Total Cases in Sri Lanka vs Daily Growth Rate in Sri Lanka.
Spread Probability (R0) in Sri Lanka Before vs After Lockdown.
Global Infection Trajectory: See Which Countries are Flattening Their COVID-19 Curve.
Daily New Cases in Sri Lanka
Case Growth Rate (%)
High-risk medical conditions of Covid-19 (Study - China)
Multiple conditions increase the risk factors. (Study - Italy)
WHO has explained four stages of COVID-19
COVID-19 Transmission vs Social Distancing
Top 5 District Distribution of Cases in Sri Lanka
COVID-19 confirmed in Sri Lanka - Nationality
COVID-19 Age Distribution
COVID-19 Gender Distribution
Total Negative vs Positive COVID-19 tests confirmed in Sri Lanka
District Data Map
|Naval and Other Forces||775|
|Arrivals from Other Countries||480|