6123

Active Cases

10424

Total Cases

4282

Recovered Cases

8311

Local Case Count

2113

Imported Case Count

Local Cases

Most Cases Source

19

Districts Affected

633

Daily New Cases

30, Oct 2020

Last Community Patient Reported

19

Fatal Cases

435

Hospitalized

490563

PCR Tests Performed

14304

+/- 121 Confidence Variance
Predicted Final Spread

17/25

Districts Affected

9%

Growth Rate

42%

Recovery Rate

0.2%

Fatality Rate

COVID19 Spread End Projection in Sri Lanka - Daily Update.

Date Predicted Peak Day Predicted Final Cases in SL Predicted Spread End Day Confidence Variance (+/-)
19 Oct 12 Oct 6204 09 Dec 2020 22
20 Oct 13 Oct 6275 11 Dec 2020 23
21 Oct 13 Oct 6300 13 Dec 2020 24
22 Oct 20 Oct 7521 08 Feb 2021 78
23 Oct 04 Nov 9369 24 Apr 2021 143
24 Oct 06 Nov 9438 29 Apr 2021 144
25 Oct 05 Nov 9790 04 May 2021 144
26 Oct 05 Nov 10182 17 May 2021 123
27 Oct 31 Oct 11340 09 May 2021 122
28 Oct 31 Oct 12484 14 May 2021 122
29 Oct 31 Oct 14304 25 May 2021 121

Analysis for Sri Lanka:

  • The maximum amount of cases should be around 14304 cases (+/-121).
  • We expect the spreading will continue till 25 May 2021.

A new method has been applied to further adjust the prediction accuracy. For this calculation, a hybrid model is used - Regression model, a Multilayer perceptron model and Logistics model.

Disclaimer: The models and predictions are based on currently available data and calculated when sufficient validated observations have been reported. Sudden community spreads or new exposure evidence (i.e. Akurana, Bandaragama Incident, Religious mass in Jaffna) can affect new projections. When such incidences are reported, the model will be re-calibrated.

The authors and the developers of this website are not liable for any outcomes following the use of the data and prediction from this website.

Outbreak Spread Trend.

COVID-19 Sri Lanka - Case Source Distribution.

COVID-19 Sri Lanka 0-10000 Cases Duration.

COVID-19 Sri Lanka Total Number of PCR Tests Performed.

PCR Tests Performed

Sri Lanka COVID-19 Recovery Rate vs Fatality Rate.

Total Cases in Sri Lanka vs Daily Growth Rate in Sri Lanka.

Spread Probability (R0) in Sri Lanka Before vs After Lockdown.

Global Infection Trajectory: See Which Countries are Flattening Their COVID-19 Curve.

Daily New Cases in Sri Lanka

Case Growth Rate (%)

High-risk medical conditions of Covid-19 (Study - China)

Multiple conditions increase the risk factors. (Study - Italy)

WHO has explained four stages of COVID-19

COVID-19 Transmission vs Social Distancing

Top 5 District Distribution of Cases in Sri Lanka

COVID-19 confirmed in Sri Lanka - Nationality

COVID-19 Age Distribution

COVID-19 Gender Distribution

Transmission Sources

Total Negative vs Positive COVID-19 tests confirmed in Sri Lanka

District Data Map

District Data Map Here...

District Data

District Cases
Colombo 160
Gampaha 149
Puttalam 35
Kalutara 34
Anuradhapura 20
Kandy 16
Polonnaruwa 13
Kurunegala 11
Jaffna 7
Ratnapura 6
Kegalle 4
Monaragala 4
Ampara 4
Kalmunai 2
Matale 2
Galle 2
Badulla 1
Matara 1
Batticoloa 1
Hambanthota 1
Total Community Cases 894
Naval and Other Forces 922
Quarantine Centres 78
Arrivals from Other Countries 816
Kandakadu Rehab. Center 473
Welikada Prison 1
Foreigners 30

Exposure History of Covid-19 Diagnosed cases of Sri Lanka as on 27 Mar 2020.