5654

Active Cases

22279

Total Cases

16226

Recovered Cases

20410

Local Case Count

1618

Imported Case Count

Local Cases

Most Cases Source

Colombo

Most Affected District

251

Daily New Cases

26, Nov 2020

Last Community Patient Reported

99

Fatal Cases

650

Hospitalized

790896

PCR Tests Performed

30280

+/- 200 Confidence Variance
Predicted Final Spread

25/25

Districts Affected

2.6%

Growth Rate

72%

Recovery Rate

0.4%

Fatality Rate

COVID19 Spread End Projection in Sri Lanka - Daily Update.

Date Predicted Peak Day Predicted Final Cases in SL Predicted Spread End Day Confidence Variance (+/-)
19 Oct 12 Oct 6204 09 Dec 2020 22
20 Oct 13 Oct 6275 11 Dec 2020 23
21 Oct 13 Oct 6300 13 Dec 2020 24
22 Oct 20 Oct 7521 08 Feb 2021 78
23 Oct 04 Nov 9369 24 Apr 2021 143
24 Oct 06 Nov 9438 29 Apr 2021 144
25 Oct 05 Nov 9790 04 May 2021 144
26 Oct 05 Nov 10182 17 May 2021 123
27 Oct 31 Oct 11340 09 May 2021 122
28 Oct 31 Oct 12484 14 May 2021 122
29 Oct 31 Oct 14304 25 May 2021 121
30 Oct 01 Nov 12698 04 June 2021 121
31 Oct 31 Oct 12613 01 June 2021 121
01 Nov 23 Oct 14844 20 June 2021 122
02 Nov 01 Nov 15944 27 June 2021 123
03 Nov 31 Oct 15711 10 March 2021 146
04 Nov 03 Nov 17664 21 March 2021 156
05 Nov 02 Nov 17885 20 March 2021 156
06 Nov 04 Nov 18865 21 March 2021 165
08 Nov 03 Nov 18425 13 March 2021 155
09 Nov 05 Nov 19749 01 March 2021 156
10 Nov 04 Nov 19931 10 March 2021 186
11 Nov 04 Nov 20886 13 March 2021 140
12 Nov 04 Nov 21818 14 March 2021 216
13 Nov 06 Nov 22694 20 March 2021 196
14 Nov 06 Nov 23134 11 March 2021 220
15 Nov 09 Nov 24673 18 March 2021 267
16 Nov 10 Nov 25924 23 March 2021 178
17 Nov 11 Nov 26997 30 March 2021 421
18 Nov 13 Nov 27528 07 April 2021 504
19 Nov 15 Nov 29012 17 April 2021 644
20 Nov 14 Nov 28867 22 April 2021 667
21 Nov 17 Nov 31206 15 April 2021 729
22 Nov 14 Nov 29072 26 March 2021 539
23 Nov 13 Nov 29499 26 March 2021 197
24 Nov 13 Nov 29709 23 March 2021 176
25 Nov 14 Nov 30280 24 March 2021 200

Analysis for Sri Lanka:

  • The maximum amount of cases should be around 30280 cases (+/-200).
  • We expect the spreading will continue till 24 March 2021.

A new method has been applied to further adjust the prediction accuracy. For this calculation, a hybrid model is used - Regression model, a Multilayer perceptron model and Logistics model.

Disclaimer: The models and predictions are based on currently available data and calculated when sufficient validated observations have been reported. Sudden community spreads or new exposure evidence (i.e. Akurana, Bandaragama Incident, Religious mass in Jaffna) can affect new projections. When such incidences are reported, the model will be re-calibrated.

The authors and the developers of this website are not liable for any outcomes following the use of the data and prediction from this website.

Outbreak Spread Trend.

COVID-19 Sri Lanka - Case Source Distribution.

COVID-19 Sri Lanka 0-21000 Cases Duration.

COVID-19 Sri Lanka Total Number of PCR Tests Performed.

PCR Tests Performed

Sri Lanka COVID-19 Recovery Rate vs Fatality Rate.

Total Cases in Sri Lanka vs Daily Growth Rate in Sri Lanka.

Spread Probability (R0) in Sri Lanka Before vs After Lockdown.

Global Infection Trajectory: See Which Countries are Flattening Their COVID-19 Curve.

Daily New Cases in Sri Lanka

Case Growth Rate (%)

High-risk medical conditions of Covid-19 (Study - China)

Multiple conditions increase the risk factors. (Study - Italy)

WHO has explained four stages of COVID-19

COVID-19 Transmission vs Social Distancing

Top 5 District Distribution of Cases in Sri Lanka

COVID-19 confirmed in Sri Lanka - Nationality

COVID-19 Age Distribution

COVID-19 Gender Distribution

Transmission Sources

Total Negative vs Positive COVID-19 tests confirmed in Sri Lanka

District Data Map

District Data Map Here...

District Data

District Cases
Colombo 7673
Gampaha 5486
Puttalam 112
Kalutara 790
Anuradhapura 81
Kandy 309
Kurunegala 298
Polonnaruwa 23
Jaffna 25
Ratnapura 141
Kegalle 194
Monaragala 16
Kalmunai 4
Matale 31
Galle 210
Ampara 27
Badulla 50
Matara 35
Batticoloa 78
Hambanthota 23
Vavunia 15
Trincomalee 14
Nuwaraeliya 78
Kilinochchi 5
Mannar 10
Mullathivu 1

Exposure History of Covid-19 Diagnosed cases of Sri Lanka as on 27 Mar 2020.